Sports wagering can be very profitable if a person know the tricks often the “smart money” bettors work with to consistently make money. One of the primary secrets that smart money bettors use is definitely knowing when NOT to be able to bet.
Here’s a ideal illustration. We analyzed often the Western California vs. Louisville activity, and concluded the fact that West California had typically the edge in the video game. Nonetheless We also recognized that there were a good deal of random and unforeseen factors, and recommended to my clients that they carry out not bet on this specific game. Here is our analysis I released prior to the game:
West Florida or Louisville
This activity provides all the signs of being one involving the very best games regarding the year, with both equally teams coming into the overall game 7-0. It’s #3 graded West Virginia compared to. #5 ranked Louisville, both along with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s match was a classic, having Rest of the world Virginia coming rear from being down huge in the fourth 1 fourth to winning around overtime.
So what’s the action seem like this year?
In the event this game were appearing played at a fairly neutral field, West Virginia will probably be a 4-6 stage favorite. Since often the game is Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if can make sense…
West Virginia will be on an unprecedented move. That they haven’t lost since Jan. 1, 2005, intending 14-0 since they missing to Las vegas Tech. On the last two months they’re 13-5 ATS in addition. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last nine video games overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their final 10 HIGHWAY games.
These kind of are some very outstanding stats that tilt the particular scales in favor connected with WVU regarding tonight’s online game. Plus, the particular additional bonus offer is that WVU is GETTING +1 point. This might not appear like very much, but in a close up match-up such as this, that spare point might make the distinction between some sort of push plus a loss.
Louisville’s statistics are really almost as good like WVU’s -except when the idea comes to Louisville covering the point spread. In their very own previous 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. That will said, Louisville is even so 7-3 ATS within their very last 10 home game titles.
And even if you’re leaning to WVU, here’s a scary stat… Louisville hasn’t misplaced in the home since 12 eighteen, 2003! During this current run Louisville is hitting 49. five points each game in the home, while hitting only quitting 15. six points every game in home. In case anyone don’t do the math, that means since their own last home decline they have already averaged beating their own competitors by way of about 34 details per game.
Even greater extraordinary, the average line during these games has only recently been 21 points. That means Louisville has beaten the spread, on average, by means of 13 items per sport at home considering 2003.
Wow… how can anyone go against that?
Nearly all of those stats had been accumulated during the july 2004 season. Shock as to, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to fine than great. They are yet to possessed recent games where they are yet to only scored 36, 12, 24 points. And the game titles weren’t against Iowa St. or Michigan. That they were being against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St.
To put it succinctly the fact that this is still a new close activity to get in touch with. Nonetheless what I look to get is West Virginia’s safeguard to carry the working day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St. can all of hold Louisville under 25 points, then there’s zero explanation to think WVU can’t have one to the particular low to core 20’s. My honest advice can be to lay off this kind of game and not gamble at all. There will be better activities this quick with more simple rewards.
The final score of this game was Louisville forty four, West Va 34. Lousiville won because West Las vegas had 6 fumbles in addition to allowed Lousiville to give back a good punt for some sort of TD. The bottom line was the fact that West Virginia’s edge has not been so big that they may still win soon after making so many mistakes. By way of not betting on this particular activity, people serious concerning gambling saved money that they can offer better apply on coming games.